Think Fast

Byline: GENE MENEZ

How you handle overachieving players–as well as those who underperform–will decide your fantasy fate

BUY LOW, sell high–and count the wins as they roll in. The similarity to the stock market is one of the reasons that fantasy football is so addictive. But as with a real stock exchange, determining the right course of action with commodities that are over- or underachieving is a skill that requires good instincts and solid information. With that in mind, what follows is SI’s evaluation of five players who have dramatically exceeded expectations so far this season, as well as five who have drastically underperformed.

The Overachievers

REX GROSSMAN QB Bears

He was named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for September (and SI’s Peter King wondered if he had gotten “an arm transplant from Dan Fouts”), but fantasy owners should beware. Grossman has had only one huge game–against the Lions, one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses, in Week 2–and in the opener against the Packers, whose pass defense is even worse than Detroit’s, he threw for just 262 yards and one touchdown.

Recommendation Sell. Favorable matchups have made him look more valuable than he is, and when the wind starts whipping around Soldier Field in a few weeks, passing will be difficult.

FRANK GORE RB 49ers

New offensive coordinator Norv Turner has helped make Gore this season’s most pleasant running back surprise. But Gore, who has rushed for 331 yards and three touchdowns, has also fumbled four times in four games, including twice at the opponents’ one-yard line, prompting coaches to insert rookie Michael Robinson on goal line carries.

Recommendation Buy. Despite Gore’s butterfingers, he remains the featured back in an improved 49ers attack and has the potential for some big outings against the likes of the Raiders, Lions, Packers and Cardinals.

CHARLIE FRYE QB Browns

Saddled with a truly offensive O-line and one of the worst running games in the league, Frye has been forced to become a one-man gang. Scrambling for his life, he has thrown for a meager 216.5 yards per game but for seven TDs. A contrarian’s note: Against the Ravens in Week 3, Frye did pass for a career-high 298–despite getting sacked seven times–and displayed a growing rapport with receiver Braylon Edwards (five catches, 116 yards, one TD).

Recommendation

Sell. Frye has been gutty, but guts don’t earn fantasy points.

LAVERANUES COLES WR Jets

After two straight seasons in which he had fewer than 1,000 receiving yards, Coles has rejoined the ranks of elite fantasy wideouts. With a healthy Chad Pennington under center and a dismal rushing attack, Coles has been the Jets’ main playmaker downfield, leading the league in receptions (30).

Recommendation

Buy. Games against the Lions, Texans and Packers ensure that the returns will keep coming.

MARQUES COLSTON WR Saints

Possessing great size (6′4″, 231 pounds) and good speed (4.5 in the 40), this seventh-round pick from I-AA Hofstra has been a steal. He leads New Orleans with 20 receptions for 336 yards; moreover, with three touchdowns (including an 86-yarder) he has proved to have a nose for the end zone. In certain leagues he also qualifies at tight end, making him even more valuable.

Recommendation

Buy. He’s still a free agent in some leagues; even if he’s already taken, he won’t cost you much in a trade and his upside is enormous.

The Underachievers

CADILLAC WILLIAMS RB Buccaneers

No player has been a bigger fantasy bust than Williams, who has rushed for just 107 yards and one touchdown in three games. Two problems have been the defenses that Tampa Bay has faced (Ravens, Falcons and Panthers) and Chris Simms’s inability to provide a passing threat. Now, with rookie Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, running the ball has become even more difficult.

Recommendation

Sell–if you can find a Bucs fan or a wishful owner who wants to take a chance on a slightly used Cadillac.

DAUNTE CULPEPPER QB Dolphins

The man who was expected to lead Miami to the Super Bowl has flopped so far, averaging a mere 232.3 passing yards and throwing just two touchdown passes against three interceptions. It hasn’t helped that the 29-year-old has lost some mobility after knee surgery, that he’s in his first year in a new system and that the Dolphins’ offensive line has already gone through three starting right guards and allowed a whopping 20 sacks–12 in Weeks 2 and 3 alone.

Recommendation

Sell, if you can get anywhere near fair value. After Sunday’s 249-yard, one-touchdown effort against the Texans, his stock won’t get any higher.

TIKI BARBER RB Giants

The No. 4 pick in most fantasy drafts has been held to 225 yards in three games, shackled not so much by other teams as by his own. Early deficits against the Eagles and the Seahawks forced New York out of its running game and kept Barber under 100 yards two times in three games.

Recommendation

Buy. With the toughest part of their schedule behind them, Barber & Co. don’t figure to be down early by three touchdowns again.

LAMONT JORDAN RB Raiders

If Jordan could play the Browns every week, he’d be a Pro Bowler. After being stuffed for a total of 55 yards over the first two games, he ran for 128 yards and a touchdown against Cleveland on Sunday. The Browns, however, have the fourth-worst run defense in the NFL, so Jordan’s numbers should be looked at with skepticism. Also, coach Art Shell has said he plans to get more carries for backup running back Justin Fargas, who had a 48-yard run on Sunday.

Recommendation

Sell. With games against the Broncos (twice), Steelers, Seahawks and Chargers in the next eight weeks, Jordan’s stock is about as high as it’ll get.

CHRIS COOLEY TE Redskins

One of last season’s breakout players has run a reverse so far this year. Although offensive coordinator Al Saunders loves to feature the tight end, Cooley has caught a paltry 11 passes for 108 yards and no TDs while often being used as a blocker. There are also fewer balls to go around with wideout Antwaan Randle El in the lineup.

Recommendation

Sell. There are more than enough viable tight ends on the market.

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FIRST-AND-10

MORE OVERACHIEVERS

1 Patriots running back Laurence Maroney, a FANTASY PLUS favorite from Day One, is well worth acquiring. Buy.

2 Broncos wideout Javon Walker is healthy, but it’s always a gamble to rely on one of Jake Plummer’s receivers. Sell.

3 Wideout Amani Toomer’s Giants are too good to be trailing (and throwing as often) as they have been. Sell.

4 Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew has impressed while spelling fragile starter Fred Taylor. Buy.

5 With Chad Pennington healthy and the Jets’ running game subpar, receiver Jerricho Cotchery will thrive. Buy.

6 In seven years Bears tight end Desmond Clark has had one season with more than 433 yards and three TDs. Sell.

7 With the terrible Texans likely to keep falling way behind early, the red-hot ANDRE JOHNSON, a 6′3″, 219-pound wideout who has caught 20 passes for 253 yards in the last two weeks, should continue putting up big numbers. Buy.

8 Once Terrell Owens’s broken finger heals, he’ll overtake receiver Terry Glenn as Drew Bledsoe’s go-to guy in Dallas. Sell.

9 One domed stadium plus one offense with red-zone troubles equals a big season for Rams kicker Jeff Wilkins. Buy.

10 Led by linebacker Bart Scott (five sacks, one interception), the Ravens’ D has returned to the top of the NFL charts. Buy.

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SECOND-AND-10

UNDERACHIEVERS

1 Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s stock hit a low in Week 3, but a budding rapport with new receiver Doug Gabriel bodes well. Buy.

2 Circumstances and coverages, not lack of talent, have limited Cincy receiver Chad Johnson to one TD in four games. Buy.

3 The Chargers’ Antonio Gates has too much athletic ability to continue playing like a midlevel tight end. Buy.

4 It wasn’t that long ago that wideout RANDY MOSS had countless fantasy owners singing his praises. With the Vikings in 2003, he caught 111 passes for 1,632 yards and 17 touchdowns. Now stuck with the inept Raiders, he is a backup fantasy receiver at best. On Sunday he had one catch for five yards (though it was for his first TD), increasing his barely visible season stats to seven receptions for 84 yards. Poor play from quarterbacks Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter has kept Moss from busting loose, and there is no sign that things will get better. It’s time to get what you can for him–if it’s not too late. Sell.

5 Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme will perk up now that wideout Steve Smith is healthy. Buy.

6 Despite a 100-yard game on Sunday, Browns RB Reuben Droughns has no offensive line to speak of. Sell.

7 Unless Dolphins QB Daunte Culpepper improves his 2-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio, WR Chris Chambers can’t be counted on. Sell.

8 Chiefs TE Tony Gonzalez won’t get near his usual Pro Bowl numbers as long as QB Trent Green is out. Sell.

9 Supposedly healthy, Cowboys kicker Mike Vanderjagt missed a 26-yard FG try on Sunday. A cause for concern. Sell.

10 Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (no TD passes) remains a caretaker, not a playmaker. Sell.

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PLAYER RANKINGS

Get the latest NFL news, plus ratings for all fantasy football positions and daily injury updates at SI.com/fantasy.

CAPTION(S):

DEHOOG/TDP (GORE)

Gore

AL PEREIRA/WIREIMAGE.COM (COLES)

Coles

THOMAS E. WITTE (FRYE)

TOM DIPACE (WILLIAMS); BOB ROSATO (BARBER); MICHAEL CONROY/AP (JOHNSON)

GREG TROTT/WIREIMAGE.COM